Wednesday, November 30, 2005

VC firm focuses on on-demand businesses

Emergence Capital Partners is focused only on on-demand services. It appears to be a narrow niche, but it actually isn't. I'm nearly sure that Emergence knows the prospects of on-demand services are huge. Their value prop is usually solid. Their applicability cuts across industries and functional areas. And they're gradually going to be sweeping more and more across the conventional software world. I think Emergence basically found a good positioning opportunity to stand out uniquely, without having to trade off on the overall market of investment opportunities they can address. And they're also pretty 'get-it' about the scalability and cost efficiency that on-demand service models enable.

No wonder what set the ball rolling for Emergence was a windfall 10X gain from an investment in salesforce.com. Nice to think that everyone's favorite on-demand middle-schooler is actually already starting to generate a legacy...

As the founders of Emergence say, "...the singular focus of their investments is modeled on Salesforce.com, which they argue has changed everything. "Salesforce.com has come in with a sales approach and fundamentally disrupted the $200 billion software market. Virtually every area of the software industry can be targeted with that fundamentally different approach."

Touche.

I'm going to be tracking the Emergence portfolio. Their other investments include -

- Adapt Technologies: automated online advertising
- Goodmail Systems: e-mail certification services
- SuccessFactors Inc: on-demand HRM
- HireRight Inc: on-demand background screening service for companies

Watch them; there just may be some gems in there!

Thursday, November 17, 2005

Its the business model,stupid!

From someone who knows the enterprise software business well, I recently heard scepticism about the value that salesforce.com was creating for their customers. After all, SFDC offers pretty basic functionality for the most part. They go fairly broad, but not deep. Their various modules appear to have more of a toy-like feel when compared to the sort of functionality that old guard enterprise vendors like Oracle, SAP and Siebel build into their business applications. We've heard Gartner say that before in their note 'Complex Salesforce.com Deployments Will Cost You' . And as I've noted on this blog before, I agree with Gartner's argument here. There's limited inbuilt functional value here from a typical large enteprise perspective.

So why should investors pay 10X rev/100X earnings for SFDC's commoditized value? Over 20X for Google!..Why indeed? Because its the business model, stupid! Its their growth potential being factored into the multiples here, no relation (inverse, if at all) with the absolute selling price of their products (a metric held very dear in the enterprise software world). Think of this like the paradigm shift from mainframes to PC's in terms of the market expansion these companies are driving.

A business that focuses on promoting mass usage i.e. commoditization, particularly one that's innovating towards that goal, is really more about building barriers for new entrants through scale and volume. Its about production and service delivery capacity that scales up without degrading, and a selling operation that scales as well. Its not so much about value per sale, as much as it is about addressing new underserved markets by dramatically reducing the cost of serving a customer.

SFDC is adding 10-15K users a month, at a steady clip so far, small business by small business. For good measure, there's an emerging trend of larger businesses getting drawn towards it as well. I don't see how/why this growth among SMB's will change soon, if their execution stays the way it has been so far. Sure, this is not a model with network-like effects and exponential growth, and that makes for some conservatism. But its built for long term linear growth, and more importantly, its game changing in nature.

There are millions more users of the kind they have so far (~350K). For a lot of them and the businesses they work for, $1000 a year is a pretty good deal for what SFDC allows them to do, its robustness and simplicity, its transparency, and the hassle it takes away.

And note all the ingredients - Visionary leadership. Business model innovation. Scalable architecture. Broad, horizontal, low cost/high volume positioning. Emerging platform-like characteristics and a nascent developer community. Self-serve provisioning. Product globalization. International sales operations. Aggressive infrastructure investments. Appealing branding and marketing. Presence in both underserved developed markets and high potential emerging markets. Finally now, a partner distribution model with exciting potential (AppExchange)...

Yes, there's value here. Its in the model's scalability, and its ability to serve a large underserved market.


(Disclaimer: I own stock in salesforce.com)

Monday, November 07, 2005

The End of Corporate Computing?

Nicholas Carr, the author of 'Does IT Matter' fame, recently wrote this piece - The End of Corporate Computing. He talks about how on-demand technologies are set to ring in the demise of in-house corporate computing. Here's an excerpt -

"...the wastefulness of the current, fragmented model of IT supply is unsustainable. As with the factory-owned generators that dominated electricity production a century ago, today's private IT plants will be supplanted by large-scale, centralized utilities...Computing utilities will bring to an end the traditional model of "corporate computing" in which computing is carried out within individual corporations - just as electric utilities made "corporate electricity generation" obsolete. And utility computing will represent "the end" toward which business computing in general is heading. It's IT's destination."

Here too are excerpts of interesting responses from writers around the web -

- "a utility model for IT supply seems "natural and necessary," (but) "it will take decades to kill the way corporate computing is practiced today."..."we don't yet "have efficient marketplaces, like commodity futures, for selling IT services. Nor is the standardized metering and billing infrastructure in place to enable IT utility marketplaces."

- "(the reality) is a lot more complicated..."..specially "managing all that data as it traverses its way along a multitude of cyberpathways through potentially millions of unknown sources and destinations."

- "..(he) illuminates (the on-demand trend) with a plausible historical parallel...",.."(he is) overselling the general economic upheaval, however."

- "run the numbers on utility computing or 'renting' applications...offload as many capital costs, operating costs and upgrade costs as possible",..."(but) the smart CEO will still keep his corporation computing...how you embody your strategic thinking in code...will be the source of competitive advantage for decades to come."

- "'CEOs and managers in general want to think hard about the information. They don't care about the machinery."

- "(he) missed ...the one fundamental point, that the concept of utility is predicated upon common platform multi-tenancy."


In general, I like Carr's provocative presentation, although I agree more with most of the commentators who say he's half-right, BUT...not quite so. Firslty, he tripped up in saying 'corporate'...which to a lot of people signifies large companies. He'd be more on the mark if he contends that his thesis is a fair degree more applicable to the large numbers of small and midsized businesses than it is to large companies.

A variety of reasons, some relatively more quantifiable and some not, lead large companies to often make Own (Buy or Build) decisions versus Rent decisions for particular corporate assets or functions. It depends on how important it is to their long term competitiveness, sustainability, profitability and/or shareholder interests. When they do work the numbers, asset ownership can often turn out to be cheaper and less complicated than renting. The equation may veer more towards rent (outsourcing) for non-critical corporate functions, because that would factor in softer issues and people-related costs as well (eg. morale costs in scenarios of corporate restructuring, skill depreciation costs vs. learning curve gains due to experience).

In the case of IT assets, the more standardized, simplified and commodity-like they become, the more one could argue for ownership. The more economies of scale IT investments allow, or conversely the more they present high investment barriers, the more utility like they would become. Depends on how one views commoditization - is it about the technology or its usage. In fact, Mr. Carr may actually prove to be right and IT will look as utility-like as phone services or electricity if IT becomes highly specialized and capital intensive, not if it becomes more commoditized. One can't simply hire Joe Mechanic after all to run 1200 megawatt electricity turbines or 250,000 line telephone switches, no matter how commodity-like electricity and dial tones may be ;)

So said, one can also find plenty common examples of large enterprises owning non-core assets and/or functions -

- they may own their office buildings rather than renting, and may have their own facilities maintenance staff and/or exercise various flavors of outsourcing options for asset maintenance...
- they often own their own executive aircraft, why of all things! And get a load of this..Google just bought a souped up Boeing 747 for its executives...apparently their numbers worked in favor of buying it.
- one example I like - big companies own their own PBX equipment even though Centrex services with comparable features have been around from phone companies for atleast a couple of decades.
- large companies do continue to hire their own plain Jane and John employees (commodity?), Business Process Outsourcing notwithstanding.

So there...I could go on. Would rather end saying that its interesting to read Mr. Carr's stuff, but important to stay realistic about it as well.